Oscars: Who Should and Who Will

January 11, 2013 § 1 Comment

For those of you who do not know, I am CRAZY about awards season. Yeah, I know that they are controlled by money, possibly totally bullshit, good stuff gets forgotten, etc. Doesn’t mean I don’t get to be excited about them. As one of the most opinionated, stubborn people I know, I am going to give you my Oscar picks for the big categories, as well as what I think will win regardless of what deserves to.

Disclaimer, I have not seen Zero Dark Thirty yet, I am going tomorrow evening. Don’t jump down my throat, I have read countless reviews and I will take other critic’s opinions into consideration. I also have not seen Beasts of the Southern Wild, but it doesn’t sound like it’s a major contender when compared to the films it’s up against.

Also, this awards season is a whole new ball game. Bypassing Kathryn Bigelow and Tom Hooper for best director is quite the shake-up, especially in favor of David O. Russell and the Beasts of the Southern Wild guy (I know his last name is Zeitlin, but he’s not a big name and frankly, the twenty minutes I’ve seen of that movie were good, not great).

I will only comment when I have seen at least 80% of the movies nominated, so I will not discuss all the categories. Let’s begin. There is only one thing that I believe is absolutely for sure, so we’ll start with Best Actor.

Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Why: Bradley Cooper, Joaquin Phoenix, and Hugh Jackman were marvelous in Silver Linings Playbook, the Master, and Les Miserables respectively. Joaquin is good in everything he’s in, but his mocking of awards season in the past will not be received well by critics. Hugh Jackman was marvelous, but Richard Gere didn’t win for Chicago, either (though it did win Best Picture…) I have not seen Flight, but Denzel has been similarly well-received. No one is denying that all of them are fantastic actors. But none of that matters, because the Academy loves DDL. The people love DDL. He becomes the character, and Lincoln is not only a picture that I believe was truly well-done, but it gives the people exactly what they want to see. Yes, Lincoln was a complex man, and the film gives us that. However, it doesn’t reveal him to be too complex that he’s alienating, the film skates over the fact that Lincoln made racist jokes and used the ‘n’ word. The half-true historical figure we idealize, that many people believe to be ‘the best president in American history,’ is on the screen. The Academy eats up this kind of stuff. He’ll win.

Best Actress

Who Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
Why: Everyone loves her. Everyone wants to give her an Oscar. GIVE HER THE OSCAR! Critics have said Jessica Chastain could come out swinging and surprise us, but I think the real dark horse in this race is Emmanuelle Riva. It’d be like when Marion Cotillard came out of nowhere and won for La Vie en Rose in 2007. Then again, the competition was nowhere as steep as it is this year. I digress, so I’ll repeat it again. GIVE J LAWR THE OSCAR!

Best Supporting Actor

Who Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio for Django Unchained
Who Will Win: Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained
Why: I know, I know, Leo wasn’t even nominated. But his performance as sadistic plantation owner Calvin Candie was both mesmerizing and horrifying. I’ve never seen something so powerful on screen. Yes, Christoph Waltz was great, and he’s won before for a Tarantino movie. He’ll win again. Only De Niro in Silver Linings is as deserving, but seriously, WHO IGNORED LEO? Probably the same moron who nominated Alan Arkin for Argo. I guess I shouldn’t ignore Phillip Seymour Hoffman for The Master or Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln but I’m going to. Yawn.

Best Supporting Actress

Who Should Win: Does it really matter?
Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables
Why: I read an article that said Hathaway started practicing her acceptance speech the first day of Les Mis rehearsals. I know they were kidding…but they weren’t. She will dominate. Also some other people were maybe nominated…I think? Moving on.

Best Director:

Who Should Win: Quentin Tarantino or Kathryn Bigelow, but neither of them were nominated
Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
Why: I saw all of these films before they were nominated, because I anticipated them as such. (Excuse me while I take a bow for my intuitiveness.) I was not surprised that Ang Lee was nominated for Life of Pi, and I knew Spielberg would be nominated (and probably win) for for best director. But David O. Russell? Seriously? The acting and script was what made Silver Linings a great movie. I haven’t seen Zero Dark Thirty but I’ve heard Bigelow’s work is a masterpiece. And ignoring Tarantino? Are you FUCKING kidding me? Django was the best movie he’s made so far (yeah, better than Pulp Fiction and Reservoir Dogs, you heard me) and ignoring this movie in favor of Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild just bums me out.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Who Should Win: David O’Russell for Silver Linings Playbook
Who Will Win: I really have no idea.
Why: All of these contenders could go any way: Lincoln, Argo, Life of Pi, Beasts of the Southern Wild were all really good movies with really great scripts. As someone who has read the source material for only Life of Pi, I’m a little cloudy on this category. I thought Silver Linings was great. The reality is Lincoln will probably win in all categories that have no clear front-runner, unless this ceremony goes the way it went for Hugo last time around.

Best Original Screenplay:

Who Should Win: Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained
Who Will Win: Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola for Moonrise Kingdom
Why: Flight, Amour, and Zero Dark Thirty were all great movies. Django Unchained was better. But the Academy loves Wes Anderson, and everybody loved Moonrise Kingdom. I can’t really make a more articulate argument. Just give Tarantino all the Oscars!!!!

and finally, the biggie…
BEST PICTURE

Who Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty or Django Unchained
Who Will Win: Lincoln or Les Miserables
Why: ZDT and Django were both ignored in other categories, and will probably lose in the ones they have been nominated. How good these movies were needs to be recognized. Unfortunately that shit never happens. I really don’t know who will win between Lincoln or Les Miserables: the Academy loves both of that kinds of stuff. We’ll see how this plays out.

Please comment on my Facebook post and let me know if you disagree or agree. However, as always, I’m the best and I know everything.

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